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Aluminium up 24% this year, threatening higher beverage can costs in Brazil

Aluminium on the London Metal Exchange has risen to about USD 3,100 a tonne from around USD 2,500 at the end of 2025, a 24% increase, after peaking at USD 3,800 in May, as the Middle East conflict raised energy costs and curbed Gulf supply. Brazil's high recycling rate reduces its reliance on imported metal but does not shield can buyers from higher prices. Norsk Hydro halved alumina output at its Alunorte refinery in August after a gas supply interruption.

Why this mattersA 24% rise in aluminium threatens higher can costs for Brazilian beverage fillers; high domestic recycling reduces, but does not remove, exposure to international metal prices.

• LME aluminium is about USD 3,100 a tonne against about USD 2,500 at end-2025, up 24%, after a USD 3,800 peak in May 2026
• About 9% of global aluminium output comes from Gulf countries whose facilities and export routes were affected by the conflict
• TTF gas futures exceeded EUR 87/MWh in mid-October, the highest since December 2022
• Hydro halved alumina output at Alunorte, Barcarena, in August after a gas supply interruption; it sees no evidence of a metal shortage in Brazil
• Bank of America projects a global aluminium deficit in 2026; LME warehouse stocks are at their lowest since the 1990s

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