Suzano pushes October pulp price rise, but flags 2027 oversupply risk
Suzano is attempting a further pulp price increase in October, targeting USD 600 per tonne for short-fibre pulp in China, after successfully pushing through a rise in September, according to a BTG Pactual note following meetings with Suzano executives in New York. The bank cites lower port inventories, delays to Asia Pulp and Paper's OKI II project and about 1.3 million tonnes of permanent long-fibre capacity closures as supporting near-term prices, but Suzano itself warned that new supply due in 2027, including Arauco's 3.5 million tonne Sucuriu plant and the delayed 1.4 million tonne OKI II project, could outpace demand growth of only 1-1.5 million tonnes a year and push prices lower again. Suzano said it is prioritising debt reduction and integration of its Kimberly-Clark joint venture over new capacity investment, expecting leverage to peak in the third quarter of 2026.
Why this mattersA near-term pulp price recovery masks a 2027 oversupply risk from Latin American and Asian capacity additions that could again pressure margins for pulp and packaging producers.
- Suzano is targeting USD 600 per tonne for short-fibre pulp in China in the October price round, after implementing a September rise, per BTG Pactual.
- Arauco's Sucuriu plant in Mato Grosso do Sul is expected to start in H2 2027 with capacity of 3.5 million tonnes of pulp a year.
- Asia Pulp and Paper's OKI II project, delayed to 2027, is expected to add a further 1.4 million tonnes of capacity.
- About 1.3 million tonnes of long-fibre pulp capacity have been permanently closed, supporting the recent price recovery.
- Structural pulp demand growth is estimated at only 1-1.5 million tonnes a year, below planned new supply.
- Suzano expects its leverage to peak in the third quarter of 2026 after completing its Kimberly-Clark transaction, and is prioritising debt reduction over new capacity.